Applied Modelling in Drug Development

Flexible regression modelling in Stan via brms


June 5, 2024


This website contains materials that were developed to accompany a series of workshops held in the Analytics department at Novartis over 2022-2024, illustrating the utility of the R package brms for solving drug- development problems. In order to highlight the versatility of that package, we have developed a collection of case studies covering a diverse set of clinical questions that were addressed via Bayesian modelling with the brms package.


This web-site is intended as a live document with updates as appropiate. Key changes to the web-site are tracked here:

  • 5th June 2024: Added 7  Probability of success from a single arm trial on assessing probability of success of in Phase-III based on a single-arm trial in Phase-II
  • 29th April 2024: Third edition course from Paul Bürkner with the new case studies on probability of success, meta-analytic priors with covariates & time-to-event modelling in Oncology phase I dose-escalation. Pre-read version.
  • 19th April 2024: First public version at
  • 5th January 2024: Release web-site in more modern quarto book based format
  • 26th April 2023: Second edition course from Paul Bürkner with the new case studies on MMRM, time-to-event data, surrogate endpoint meta-regression and network meta-analysis
  • 27th April 2022: First release with course from Paul Bürkner

License information

  • The material on this website is provided under a CC BY 4.0 license
  • The source code is provided under a GPL-2 license